In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), especially within its erstwhile tribal districts, the term “operation” has come to symbolize fear and disruption. For many locals, it conjures up memories of displacement and unrest rather than safety and tranquility.
Jaffer Mehsud, a businessman from South Waziristan, expressed his frustration, saying, “We are exhausted from hearing about these operations. They only bring displacement, not peace. They terrify us now.” His family was forced to flee during Operation Rah-e-Nijat in 2009, a military campaign aimed at the militant Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the former tribal district. “The latest operation, ‘Azm-i-Istehkam,’ feels like just another version of the same nightmare.”
Last month, a high-level meeting of federal and military leaders declared the initiation of a broad, nationwide anti-militant campaign named ‘Azm-i-Istehkam’ to address a rise in attacks on security forces by militant factions. However, the operation has sparked considerable controversy.
Political parties, peace advocates, and civil society organizations have expressed skepticism about its effectiveness, casting doubt on its prospects. Meanwhile, the government has attempted to reassure the public that Azm-i-Istehkam will not involve a large-scale military operation or result in widespread displacement of civilians.
The military, on the other hand, has positioned Operation Azm-i-Istehkam as a critical counter-terrorism effort for the nation’s survival. In a press briefing last week, Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, the military’s spokesperson, accused a “massive, illegal political mafia” of trying to undermine the operation through “organized propaganda,” and dismissed concerns about mass displacement.
Analysts and officials monitoring the situation recognize significant challenges for the new operation compared to Operation Zarb-i-Azb, which began ten years ago. While past operations have struggled to completely eradicate terrorism, questions linger about Azm-i-Istehkam’s potential success and its broader impact on national security. How will it handle the resurgent TTP and evolving geopolitical dynamics following the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan? Can it achieve its goals without the unified political support and public backing that were pivotal for previous operations like Zarb-i-Azb?
Why Initiate a New Operation?
Operation Azm-i-Istehkam is a response to the increasing number of militant attacks in Pakistan, particularly from the TTP and the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group. A recent attack by the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group on a military base in Bannu, which resulted in the deaths of eight security personnel, highlighted the growing threat. Additionally, Baloch separatist groups such as the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), operating from their bases in Iran, continue to pose challenges, especially in Balochistan, targeting Chinese interests.
The Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) has also intensified its attacks within Pakistan recently. According to data from the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, there was a 17 percent increase in terrorist attacks in 2023 compared to the previous year, including 23 suicide bombings. This trend has continued into 2024, exemplified by a suicide attack on Chinese engineers in Shangla in March, resulting in five Chinese deaths.
Analysts suggest that concerns about Chinese interests might have influenced the Pakistani government’s decision. The resurgence of militant activities is linked to the Afghan Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, which has strained relations between Pakistan and Kabul. This geopolitical shift has strengthened militant groups, exacerbating the regional security situation.
A History of Military Campaigns
Pakistan has a history of counter-terrorism campaigns, with several operations launched since 2007. The first major operation, ‘Rah-e-Haq,’ targeted local Taliban militants in Swat. The situation worsened in Swat in 2009, leading to another operation, ‘Rah-e-Rast.’ The same year saw Operation ‘Rah-e-Nijat’ launched in South Waziristan’s Mehsud areas. Smaller operations, including Sher Dil, Daraghalam, Biya Daraghalam, Khwakh Ba De Shum, and Zalzala, were also conducted across the former tribal regions.
The largest campaign, Zarb-i-Azb, began in 2014, followed by Radd-ul-Fasaad in 2017, which broadened the counterterrorism efforts nationwide. According to journalist Lehaz Ali, Zarb-i-Azb significantly reduced terrorist activities and brought relative stability until 2019. However, the security situation began deteriorating in 2020 and worsened further after the Taliban seized Kabul in August 2021.
Challenges Facing Operation Azm-i-Istehkam
The current landscape presents several challenges that differ from those encountered during Operation Zarb-i-Azb. Muhammad Feyyaz, a Lahore-based academic specializing in terrorism studies, notes that while past operations have achieved some successes, these gains have often not been sustained due to insufficient civilian government support. He emphasizes that a comprehensive, civilian-led strategy is essential for addressing the root causes of political violence and terrorism.
The lack of political consensus and public support is another major challenge. Unlike the unified national resolve that supported Zarb-i-Azb, the current operation faces significant opposition due to a fragmented political climate. Key political parties, including the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in KP, Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl, and the Awami National Party, have expressed concerns about large-scale displacement, and the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement and various peace jirgas have organized protests against the new operation.
A Resurgent and Adaptive TTP
The TTP has regrouped and evolved since Operation Zarb-i-Azb. While the group was weakened a decade ago, it has now unified its factions and incorporated new groups, including those linked to al-Qaeda and sectarian outfits. The TTP now employs a strategy that primarily targets security forces rather than civilians, which helps it escalate its campaign without provoking a massive response.
Afghanistan: A Safe Haven
The TTP’s base has shifted to Afghanistan, where it benefits from Taliban support and modern weaponry. Without addressing the TTP’s sanctuaries in Afghanistan, terrorism in Pakistan is likely to persist. The Taliban’s takeover has led to the release of TTP militants from Afghan jails, further complicating the security landscape.
Economic and International Constraints
Counterterrorism operations require significant resources, including intelligence, technology, and personnel. Pakistan’s current economic difficulties, marked by debt and financial instability, could impact the effectiveness of Operation Azm-i-Istehkam. The absence of US support, which was crucial during previous operations, is also a significant drawback. The US provided essential intelligence and drone strikes that helped target TTP leaders during Zarb-i-Azb.
In light of these challenges, Pakistan’s military and civilian leadership must find ways to address these issues and secure broad support for the operation to avoid further emboldening militant groups and worsening the security situation.
